By By MARCIA STEFFENS / Vigilant/Argus
Who would like to know what the weather will be like in a coming season? This year, with high fuel costs threatening those with already stretched budgets, an accurate prediction of what the winter has in store for the Midwest would be a blessing.
For answers, farmers have been turning to a book with a yellow cover and red and black letters, since 1792.
Though it may not always be accurate, the Old Farmer's Almanac has stood the test of time and never missed a year of publication.
Farmers through the years have consulted the Almanac on when to plant their crops.
Today, even those without acreage can see when the sun will rise and the moon will set on any given day.
The founder of the Almanac, Robert B. Thomas, devised a secret formula for predicting the weather using sunspots' influence on the earth. Later editors added technology and scientific calculations, using solar activity, weather patterns, meteorology and weather trends, along with the sunspots.
Almanac predictions are of temperature and precipitation above and below normal.
Their normals come from 30-year statistical averages prepared by governmental meteorological agencies and updated every 10 years.
Though the Almanac believes neither the other meteorologists or its forecasters can “;predict the weather with total accuracy,&#8221 they boast &#8221our results are almost very close to our traditional claim of 80 percent.“;
The 2006 Almanac predicts: &#8221a pattern of wild weather swings… a continued trend of warmer-than normal arctic temps, cold air will build over the center of the continent, resulting in a colder-than normal winter in the Northeast…. November through March will be colder than normal in most areas east of the Mississippi River and warmer than normal to its west. Snowfall will be above normal in the Northeast and in the Southern High Plains, but below normal in most other areas.“;
National Weather Service
The National Weather Service has a Climate Predictions Center, which unfortunately doesn't have much more to offer than the Farmer's Almanac.
Mike Halpert, head of forecast operation for the center, said Michigan has an equal chance to be warmer or colder than normal.
Though he couldn't make a prediction for the Midwest, he added, in the central or western parts of the nation, the temperatures would be above normal.
The weather equipment used in predictions in this area give conflicting results, he said.
With the scary predictions of 70 percent increases in home heating fuel, &#8221People are wanting to know earlier,“; he added.
He usually gets calls in November. &#8221Now we're in October and doing it,“; he said.
Halpert spoke at a winter fuel conference in Washington, D.C. on Wednesday, Oct. 12.
WNDU Meteorologist
Like Halpert, Mike Hoffman, chief meteorologist from WNDU, usually doesn't predict the coming winter this early.
He was still willing to give what he called &#8221our best scientific estimate of the coming winter.“;
Hoffman remembers last winter was &#8221slightly warmer than normal and slightly snowier than normal.“;
Meteorologists, Hoffman said, consider December through February winter for meteorological purposes.
Last year was about 1 degree above normal, only slightly colder than normal.
Let's hope this year is no worse, or may even be a bit warmer to save us even more on those high heating bills.